982
ACUS03 KWNS 260732
SWODY3
SPC AC 260731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into
Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and
southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the
Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and
become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification
of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front
southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be
attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern
Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in
place south of this boundary.

Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the
Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch
from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely
over the terrain.

...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest...
Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from
the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect
the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and
uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored
corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and
modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear
near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is
possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and
the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick.
An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the
evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest
low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater
coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak.
This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may
eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases.

...Montana...
Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the
50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm
development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest
westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear.
Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will
be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large
hail.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2025

$$