490
ACUS03 KWNS 120701
SWODY3
SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas
and far southern Nebraska.

...North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave
trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the
southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take
place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F
over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas.
Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by
afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In
addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping
inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening,
large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to
weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take
place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could
be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$