772
ACUS03 KWNS 241919
SWODY3
SPC AC 241918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage. Marginally severe storms
will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern
Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move out of the CO/NM area and into the
southern and central Plains on Monday, proceeding toward the Mid MS
Valley by Tuesday morning. This wave will bring cooling aloft and
enhanced mid to upper level winds across the region.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain cool conditions from the
northern Plains across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a
large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX to the TN Valley. This
boundary will be reinforced by bouts of thunderstorms producing
outflow, and as such predictability is low regarding the exact
position.

Substantial thunderstorm activity will likely exist over parts of
OK, northern TX, AR, and extending into the Southeast early on
Monday. A southerly fetch of theta-e will persist over the southern
plains to lower MS Valley during the day, which may maintain
corridors of thunderstorms. Any severe wind potential with early
activity will likely be tied to ongoing MCSs propagating into areas
of large instability.

As the upper trough emerges into the Plains, the most unstable air
will develop south of the effective front/outflow composite boundary
where heating is strongest, over northern to central TX within the
Slight Risk area. A few supercells may develop initially with brief
tornado/large hail threat but indications are that upscale growth
into an MCS will occur with the primary risk becoming damaging
winds.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$