745
ACUS03 KWNS 121900
SWODY3
SPC AC 121859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains Monday evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along
U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights
across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt
trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with
increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances late.

A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and
into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east
oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and
behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to
MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear
near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as
activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the
boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A
nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms
into parts of northern MN overnight.

Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from
the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft.
This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential
should be quite localized.

..Jewell.. 07/12/2025

$$