497
ACUS03 KWNS 091921
SWODY3
SPC AC 091920

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations,
is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore
flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone
should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds
south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue
over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the
coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are
likely over parts of the Southeast.

...Carolinas and the Southeast....
Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow
aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread
clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front
given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This
will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the
region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the
convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts
of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited
vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely.

...Pacific Northwest...
As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore,
steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may
result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal
WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model
guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for
stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop
should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther
inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong
stability.

..Lyons.. 11/09/2024

$$