739
ACUS03 KWNS 071942
SWODY3
SPC AC 071941

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely
scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains,
with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

...Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening,
with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and
eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the
international border.

A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and
across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and
cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into
southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front
is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in
dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode
for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation
forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some
capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with
40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to
produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of
North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian
border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles
near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor
stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will
maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.

Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN
will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures
with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.

Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with
hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend
southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a
conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker
in these areas.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

$$