703
ACUS03 KWNS 050731
SWODY3
SPC AC 050730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to
potentially severe storms are also possible over the northern
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will persevere over the northern CONUS as a
mid-level trough meanders along the CA coastline on Monday.
Mid-level impulses, embedded in the zonal flow aloft, will traverse
the Upper MS Valley and New England during the afternoon, acting as
a source of lift amid adequate moisture, instability, and vertical
wind shear, to support the potential for strong thunderstorms, a few
of which could become severe, especially over the central Plains.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
A weak surface low will develop across the central High Plains and
augment northward moisture transport beneath a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. 60 F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.
Furthermore modest northwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the
impulse will overspread the central Plains, resulting in 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given modestly elongated and curved
hodographs, supercells may develop, accompanied by a severe wind and
hail threat (with a few stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in
diameter). A tornado is also possible, particularly in central
Nebraska, where forecast hodographs show larger, curved low-level
hodographs. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS by evening,
accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat.

Strong storms may develop farther northeast into the Upper MS Valley
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Though buoyancy will
be slightly weaker compared to the central Plains, elongated
hodographs suggest that a few supercells may produce isolated
instances of severe hail.

...Portions of the Northern Appalachians...
A mid-level impulse embedded in the 500 mb flow will impinge on the
northern Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing enough
lift for convective initiation. Near 70F surface dewpoints beneath
modest lapse rates will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in tall/thin
thermodynamic profiles. Forecast soundings depict hodographs with
some low-level curvature and size, suggesting that some storms may
become strong and organized. Multicells and supercells may pose a
damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

$$