330
ACUS03 KWNS 130645
SWODY3
SPC AC 130644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the northern Plains
toward the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to spread southeast across the Dakotas/NE, becoming
positioned from the Upper MS Valley to northern KS by Wednesday
morning. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in
place. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to
strong destabilization, and thunderstorms should develop by
mid-to-late afternoon as large-scale ascent increases. Deep-layer
flow is not forecast to be overly strong, with effective shear
magnitudes in forecast soundings generally around 25-30 kt. Given
favorable thermodynamic profiles, this should be more than
sufficient for scattered organized cells capable of produce strong
gusts and hail from NE/SD into MN, necessitating a Marginal (level 1
of 5) risk.

...Mid-MS Valley...

A remnant low/MCV is forecast to move across MO/IL/IA on Tuesday. A
very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints into the
70s and PW values near 2 inches. This will aid in moderate
destabilization, though forecast lapse rates are modest.
Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be modest, though some local
enhancement near the low/MCV is possible. Quite a bit of spread in
noted in forecast guidance regarding the strength of this feature,
and several rounds of convection are possible in the days prior to
Tuesday. At this time, severe potential appears limited, but
isolated strong gusts could.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

$$