240
ACUS02 KWNS 110517
SWODY2
SPC AC 110515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern
Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the
southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by
afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet
streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the
central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of
the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the
ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest
surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a
dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor.
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F
dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints
may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow
and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless,
supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values
to around 1500 J/kg.

Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM
maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF
guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight
risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple
point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given
aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the
most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday
night.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2025

$$