568
ACUS02 KWNS 041725
SWODY2
SPC AC 041723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains on Sunday, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
An initially vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast
to gradually weaken as it moves quickly northeastward from the
Dakotas into northern Ontario through the period. A relatively deep
surface low will move northeastward in conjunction with this system,
as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...KS/southeast NE into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
It appears that the Dakotas shortwave trough will eject too early
and too far north to have more than a glancing influence on late
afternoon/evening storm development, though a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out in the morning with this system. In the wake of
the ejecting shortwave, moderate to strong low/midlevel flow will
remain in place along the frontal corridor. Low-level moisture will
be modest at best (with dewpoints generally in the 50s to low 60s
F), but relatively strong heating will result in MLCAPE increasing
to 500-1000 J/kg (generally greater with southwest extent) by late
afternoon/early evening.

Diurnal storm development may remain relatively isolated, given the
absence of stronger large-scale ascent in the wake of the ejecting
shortwave. Convection is expected to increase in coverage through
the evening near and just behind the front, aided by a southwesterly
low-level jet. The greatest relative severe potential still appears
to reside from west-central KS into southeast NE, where instability
may be sufficient for at least transient storm organization in the
presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Localized severe gusts and
possibly some hail could accompany the strongest storms. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained across the region because of this
potential, with only minor adjustments.

Farther northeast, relatively strong low/midlevel flow and
prefrontal heating/mixing will be favorable for gusty-wind potential
into parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, with weak
buoyancy and a tendency for the bulk of convection to be relatively
late, damaging-wind potential remains too uncertain for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 10/04/2025

$$