105
ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND
FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds are
possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia, northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated severe
storms capable of damaging gusts and large hail may occur over the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern GA and AL...Northern FL and the FL Panhandle...
A slow moving upper trough will begin to weaken/fill on Wednesday
over the eastern states, with upper low centered over NY. A cold
front will primarily be offshore, but the tail end will extend
westward across GA/FL. Ahead of the front, 70s F dewpoints and
strong heating will lead to strong instability, with MLCAPE possibly
reaching 4000 J/kg. This high PWAT environment along with favorable
time of day near peak heating will yield severe wind potential as
storms develop near the cold front during the afternoon.

While shear will be weak, modest westerly mean winds aloft should
support a general southeastward storm motion with multicells and
merging outflows expected. The primary concentration of storms
should be from far southern GA into the FL Panhandle and northern
FL, and perhaps into far southeast AL. Additional daytime activity
is likely farther northwest across MA and AR as well, though
large-scale support will be less. Still, areas of strong instability
could yield scattered strong gusts there.

...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into WY during the
afternoon with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
developing. This area will also be affected by a disturbance aloft
rounding the upper ridge and enhancing mid/upper winds and
deep-layer shear. Southeasterly low-level winds will maintain
sufficient moisture into the region to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
even as the boundary layer mixes with heating. Storms will form over
eastern MT and WY after 21Z and move into the western Dakotas
through early evening, with damaging wind potential. Isolated hail
may occur as well as mid/upper lapse rates remain steep, and high
level winds increase, elongating hodographs.

..Jewell.. 07/28/2026

$$