282
ACUS02 KWNS 230617
SWODY2
SPC AC 230615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$