343
ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK
into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase
with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to
the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave
will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians
by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly
flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread
Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700
mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will
overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500
J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in
stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of
MO/IL/KY and vicinity.

The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging
wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection
is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the
morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and
rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of
northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions
of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters
with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may
occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective
evolution.

Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with
the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into
the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the
airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability
could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for
organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases.
While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for
damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist
during the afternoon into early evening.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will
shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early
evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow
over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold
front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible.
Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small
bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX...

Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on
Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the
morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting
eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest
upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts
and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may
develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the
vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and
unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear
will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage.
Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with
any storms that can develop.

...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern
Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented
trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality
destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled
with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with
somewhat low-topped/high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$