549
ACUS02 KWNS 171718
SWODY2
SPC AC 171717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South
Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional
strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia,
Virginia and North Carolina.

...Northern Plains...
A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN
during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from
western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift
and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day
elevated thunderstorms expected.

As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD
into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least
isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by
00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will
likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with
localized hail/wind potential.

Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from
SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least
localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the
night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850
mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally
possible.

...WV/VA into NC...
Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high
remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the
northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as
a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the
afternoon.

Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE
profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over
2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA
border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development
is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC.
Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally
damaging outflow winds may occur.

..Jewell.. 07/17/2025

$$