365
ACUS02 KWNS 081710
SWODY2
SPC AC 081708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
western New York.

...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast
on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the
southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated
with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front
extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints
are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but
the moist environment will support moderate instability amid
moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop
along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This
environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may
exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with
clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear
storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.

...Ohio Valley to the central Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains
to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by
a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will
be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow
is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm
organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier
microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the
primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater
instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support
an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater
instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However,
morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most
favorable environment could develop.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

$$