Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
246 ACUS02 KWNS 191723 SWODY2 SPC AC 191722 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 $$