246
ACUS02 KWNS 191723
SWODY2
SPC AC 191722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST NM...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts
are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern
New Mexico.

...Southern High Plains...
Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a
few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low
gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies.

Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with
extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent
low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating
across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to
the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points,
even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from
750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop
across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity
where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into
southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the
hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level
rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will
increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple
tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall
hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an
embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity
should wane by late evening.

..Grams.. 10/19/2024

$$