431
ACUS02 KWNS 051726
SWODY2
SPC AC 051725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High
Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+
mph wind gusts are possible.

...Central Plains...
A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern
Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds
extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures
aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates.

While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually
deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward
moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO,
and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles
aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with
localized significant hail or wind reports.

Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front
Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a
severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding
forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb
after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow.

...Maine...
Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps
with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and
Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears
properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks
at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but
moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few
damaging gusts.

...MO into central IL and IN...
A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated
surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward
into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass
will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present.
However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and
boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep.
As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through
evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out
in the strongest of cells near peak heating.

...Parts of the eastern Carolinas...
Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC
across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind
fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently
unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk
during the day with convection feeding in east of the track.

..Jewell.. 07/05/2025

$$