Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
408 ACUS02 KWNS 091721 SWODY2 SPC AC 091720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 $$