854
ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...OH Valley eastward into VA...
A weak shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection is
forecast to move across the OH Valley and into VA late. Low pressure
is forecast to develop near the Lower Great Lakes, with a trough
sweeping across OH, western PA and WV. In the wake of early
activity, strong heating near the surface trough along with 70s F
dewpoints will yield moderate instability, with scattered storms
developing during the afternoon and spreading rapidly
east/southeast.

Shear profiles appear sufficient for a few supercells, but midlevel
lapse rates will be poor which will limit hail potential. Veering
winds with height and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a
brief tornado, but damaging wind gusts appear most likely as the air
mass will be very moist and 850 mb winds increase out of the
southwest at over 30 kt resulting in progressive outflows.

...High Plains...
Midlevel northwest winds will range from 15 kt over northeast NM to
25-30 kt from CO northward, while surface winds remain weak and out
of the southeast. This will maintain the moist air mass over the
region as strong heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from NM
northward to the Black Hills. Scattered afternoon storms are likely
to initiate in the uncapped air mass near the higher elevations,
with perhaps a greater storm concentration over CO and NM.
Sufficient deep-shear will favor cells capable of hail over 1.00".
Some clusters is likely especially over southern areas, with
additional strong gusts possible into the TX/OK Panhandles where a
weak wind shift will exist.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

$$