785
ACUS02 KWNS 171733
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move rapidly eastward across TX
and OK during the day, as a stronger wave digs into the central
Plains. These features will merge Saturday night as the upper trough
crosses the MS River, with a large area of height falls and
strengthening winds aloft expanding across the OH/TN Valley into
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from the upper MS
Valley southwestward into northern OK at 18Z, with a plume of mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints already in place from eastern TX into OK and
possibly southeast KS/southwest MO. After 00Z, the cold front will
accelerate eastward, stretching from western OH into northern MS/LA
and into southeast TX.

The combination of increasing large-scale ascent as well as a
sufficiently unstable air mass with strong deep-layer shear should
result in widely scattered strong to severe storms beginning around
midday and persisting into the overnight hours.

...Eastern OK and TX into the Middle to Lower MS Valley...
A complex forecast scenario exists on Saturday with potential for
early day rain and thunderstorms, and uncertainties regarding
destabilization. In general, hail is possible over western areas,
with an increasing damaging wind threat farther east late.

Storms are likely to develop by midday ahead of the southern wave
with lift overspreading the moist plume. Cell producing hail appear
likely from northeast TX and OK, and also from northern AR into
southern MO within the moist plume. A few supercells will be
possible with 40+ kt deep-layer shear and stronger low-level shear.

Later in the afternoon and evening as the cold front overtakes the
air mass, an elongated area of storms with wind damage potential is
forecast, and this will push across the lower MS Valley. A tornado
or two may occur from LA into AR, though instability will become the
limiting factor farther east overnight.

..OH Valley/Midwest...
As the upper trough and surface low deepen overnight, wind fields
and shear profiles will increase ahead of the cold front. A forced
line of convection is possible across this region as dewpoints
remain in the lower 60s, and 850 mb winds increase to over 50 kt.
This could result in nocturnal damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado over
southeast IL, IN, northern KY and perhaps far western OH prior to
12Z.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$