514
ACUS02 KWNS 211702
SWODY2
SPC AC 211700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure and associated static stability will remain in
place across much of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), inhibiting
thunderstorm development over most locales. One exception will be
across eastern TX into LA and extreme southwest MS. Here, low-level
warm-air/moisture advection will transpire atop a cool surface
airmass as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains from
the Southern Rockies tomorrow afternoon/evening. Deep-layer ascent
will increase through the period, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development likely by late afternoon over Coastal TX,
spreading north and east into LA with time. Buoyancy will be
elevated, characterized by a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE constrained
above 850 mb. While the anticipated large, elongated hodographs
would promote enough deep-layer shear to support some hail growth in
the stronger storms, buoyancy currently appears too scant to support
an organized severe hail risk.

..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025

$$