041
ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast/New England...
To the south of a persistent deep-layer cyclone east of Hudson Bay,
another in a series of mid/upper shortwave troughs is forecast to
move across parts of New England on Wednesday. A cold front (whose
position will be influenced by D1/Tuesday convection) will move
southward across the northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
is expected near/south of the cold front, with temperatures rising
through the 90s F, and approaching 100 F in some areas. Amid this
strong heating, moisture will be sufficient for moderate
destabilization, while rather strong mid/upper-level northwesterly
flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection.

While a zone of conditionally favorable environment is expected near
the front, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage (if any) of
diurnal storm development. ARW-based CAMs remain the most aggressive
in developing isolated storms near the front during the afternoon,
with most other guidance remaining muted at best. While confidence
remains rather low, a Marginal Risk has been added for parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic, where the relative greatest signal for
isolated storm development overlaps the most favorable environment.
Locally damaging wind may be the most likely threat, given the hot
conditions and steep low-level lapse rates, though hail cannot be
ruled out, with supercell-favorable shear and sufficient instability
expected to be in place.

Across parts of Maine and vicinity, relatively low-topped convective
showers (perhaps capable of sporadic lightning flashes) may develop
during the afternoon, as the mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the region. Gusty winds could accompany this convection, due
to the presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced
low-level westerly flow. At this time, convection is expected to
remain too weak and low-topped for an organized severe threat.

Farther west into parts of the Great Lakes, some guidance suggests
potential for very isolated storm development, along the portion of
the front that extends west-northwest from the northern Mid-Atlantic
region. Large-scale ascent currently appears weak to negligible
across this area, but the environment will otherwise be favorable
for a localized damaging-wind threat, with steep low-level lapse
rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively favorable deep-layer shear.
Severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence
increases in storm development across parts of lower MI/northern OH
or points farther northwest.

...Parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies...
Scattered storms are again expected across parts of western/central
MT and northern WY, in the presence of monsoonal moisture. Increased
cloudiness and somewhat weaker diurnal heating (compared to
D1/Tuesday) may tend to limit a more organized severe threat in the
presence of modest deep-layer flow/shear, though locally strong
storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A few
strong storms may also develop across parts of central/northern OR,
where modestly stronger mid/upper-level flow will overlap the
northern extent of appreciable destabilization.

..Dean.. 07/14/2026

$$