Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
944 ACUS02 KWNS 231733 SWODY2 SPC AC 231732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains on Thursday afternoon. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive large-scale ridge centered over the Southeast, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse accompanied by moderate-strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes region during the day. In the low-levels, a slow-moving cold front will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward to a weak surface low over the southern Plains. Farther west, surface high pressure will remain in place over the Upper MS Valley. ...Great Lakes... Diurnal heating/destabilization amid rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) will contribute to moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of the cold front -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates. The enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft accompanying the midlevel impulse will yield around 30 kt of effective shear, which may promote a couple loosely organized storm clusters across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon. The stronger storm clusters will be capable of producing wind damage, given enhanced low/mid-level flow and steepening low-level lapse rates. ...Lower Missouri Valley to the Southern Plains... Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent; however, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for strong-severe thunderstorm downbursts through the afternoon. This activity will be focused along/ahead of the cold front and near the weak surface low over the southern Plains. ...Northern and central High Plains... Recycled boundary-layer moisture beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place along the northern/central High Plains. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (stronger with northward extent) and moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms capable of producing large hail and locally severe wind gusts. ..Weinman.. 07/23/2025 $$