704
ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted broad trough will be present at the beginning of
the period Thursday with an axis extending from the Southwest to the
northern Plains. Through the day, the overall pattern will become
more zonal with moderate mid-level flow across the central/southern
Plains where confluent mid-level flow will be present. Weak lee
troughing is expected across the central Plains which will lead to
northward moisture recovery across the southern/central Plains and
some sharpening of a frontal zone across the region.

...Southern/Central High Plains into Kansas/Oklahoma...
A cluster of storms will likely be present across West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle within a region of moderate isentropic ascent. This
cluster should weaken by late morning/early afternoon. However, some
12Z guidance (HRRR) has this cluster persisting long enough for
surface based inhibition to erode and eventual strengthening/new
development by early to mid-afternoon. The more likely scenario will
be a decaying MCS with remnant outflow extending into West Texas/the
southern Texas Panhandle. This region, where the dryline intersects
remnant outflow, will likely be a focus for supercell development
Thursday afternoon. Large to potentially very large hail will be
possible given the steep lapse rates and very strong shear. In
addition, enhanced shear along this boundary could lead to a locally
greater tornado threat. Higher probabilities could be necessary in
later outlooks, but uncertainty in the evolution of early day
convection and its impact on the afternoon storms limit confidence
in where this higher probability corridor may be present and the
nature of destabilization within this zone.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s across the Trans Pecos on
Thursday with dewpoints in the 60s east of the dryline. This will
support strong instability and scattered storm development across
the higher terrain during the afternoon. Moderate shear should
result in storm organization including a few supercells with a
primary hazard of large hail.

Weak to moderate instability is forecast across eastern Colorado and
into southeast Wyoming on Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms are
forecast along the dryline during the afternoon. Limited instability
is a likely primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather
threat. Where instability is greater, south of a tightening frontal
zone across southern Kansas greater storm intensity is likely. If
surface-based instability can develop during the afternoon/evening,
surface-based supercells will be possible within this frontal zone
with a threat for large hail (some very large) and a few tornadoes.
Even if diurnal destabilization does not support strong supercell
development, supercell development is likely during the late evening
as the low-level jet strengthens and isentropic ascent increases
across the TX/OK Panhandle.

During this period of strengthening isentropic ascent, expect
upscale growth into a MCS which is forecast to track east across
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma during the overnight period. A
corridor of severe wind potential will likely exist along the path
of this MCS Thursday night/early Friday morning.

...Ozarks to the Northeast...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2025

$$