596
ACUS02 KWNS 220534
SWODY2
SPC AC 220532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist
across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High
Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into
southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward
transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central
Plains.

Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing
precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread
convection across KS, while other place morning convection further
south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially
have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may
hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which
could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate
boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and
modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will
support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk
(strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled
frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains
along the dry line.

Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline
across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints
will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest
isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be
possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary
layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given
nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline
is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended
northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

$$