463
ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this
activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of
this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and
the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much
more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal
destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity,
robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains
from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an
expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon.

With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to
scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the
higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late
afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between
these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low.
Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where
convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible,
with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident
off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater
hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of
very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this
similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid
strengthening warm advection. This should result in a
forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX
Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The
amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the
degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of
below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant
greater probabilities.

...Mid-South to New England...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$