588
ACUS02 KWNS 120518
SWODY2
SPC AC 120516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA
INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be
possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region
northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms
may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri.

...Discussion...

Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the
Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while
de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low
may stall over the region.

A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of
the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard,
providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical
shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international
border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles
sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain
across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1.
This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates,
limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are
possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern
Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer
flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize
thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the
region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on
the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from
convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide
some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to
severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible.

Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible
across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support
steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable
airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly
enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of
propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level
1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

$$