


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
905 ACUS02 KWNS 020601 SWODY2 SPC AC 020600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to severe storms over a large area. ...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys... Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a risk for all hazards. With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area, confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX, southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several supercells or a well organized bowing segment. Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK overnight. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic... Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2025 $$