486
ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the
Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and New England region.

...Dakotas into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection
within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress
into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of
this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors
for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest
this activity will most likely move through northern parts of
Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could
occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds
into Arrowhead.

To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface
trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity.
This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the
Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is
forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE).
The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear.
Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will
be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a
mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength
and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be
favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the
above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor
of greatest risk.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these
regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears
probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating
and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern
New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though
shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In
the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be
able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some
clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear.
Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a
threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if
confidence increases in where clustering will occur.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2025

$$