613
ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Saturday with a ridge building
across the Upper Midwest into central Canada with an amplifying
trough across the Northeast and another trough across the Northwest.
A surface low will deepen across southern Quebec during the day with
a cold front extending into the Ohio Valley. A lee cyclone will also
develop across eastern Montana as the mid-level trough advances
eastward.

...Ohio Valley to the Northeast...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across
parts of the Ohio Valley. These storms should gradually weaken
through the morning as they move east. West-southwesterly low-level
flow will strengthen through the morning as the surface low deepens
and the pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moisture
advection ahead of the cold front from Ohio into Pennsylvania and
New York. Clouds from morning convection will limit destabilization
initially, however, once these clouds clear, an uncapped environment
with moderate instability is expected to develop rather quickly
along the cold front. Continued mid-level ascent and convergence
along the front should support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Moderate (40 knot) flow aloft should support storm
organization including the potential for supercells and linear
clusters. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threats. More widespread wind damage may occur from far eastern Ohio
across Pennsylvania and into southeast New York and northern New
Jersey where the strongest instability and shear will be present and
a broken line of storms appears likely.

...Northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota...
Destabilization will occur during the day across eastern Montana and
western North Dakota as southeasterly surface winds strengthen ahead
of the deepening lee cyclone and advect low 60s dewpoints into the
region. As height falls overspread this area, storms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across central and southeast Montana. As
these storms move into the greater instability to the
east/northeast, the large hail/severe wind threat is expected to
increase. The strong surface heating and steep low-mid level lapse
rates across the northern Plains, combined with the increasing
shear, will provide an environment supporting 70-80 mph wind gusts.
In fact some guidance, such as the 12Z NSSL WRF, show an MCS with a
80+ knot rear-inflow jet which could support 80+ mph wind gusts if
it were to materialize.

...Southern Plains...
A moist environment with 70+F dewpoints will be present across the
southern Plains on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast as
temperatures cool aloft with a weak mid-level shortwave trough
overspreading the area. This moist, unstable airmass and 30 to 35
knots of shear will support organized storms including a few
supercells capable of isolated large hail and/or water-loaded
downbursts.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2026

$$