144
ACUS02 KWNS 081712
SWODY2
SPC AC 081711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast
through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest
vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes
ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be
strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it
shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low
pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity
will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level
flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread
northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys,
with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm
850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and
the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel
lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will
be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced
from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated
thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from
the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe
storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/08/2024

$$