073
ACUS02 KWNS 231700
SWODY2
SPC AC 231658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a deep-layer cyclone is forecast to remain offshore of
the Pacific Northwest, with multiple midlevel shortwave troughs
potentially moving inland along the south/east periphery of the
cyclone. Farther east, a strong mid/upper-level jet is expected to
shift eastward over the south-central Plains, resulting in
amplification of a shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies and northern Great Plains. A surface low initially located
over KS is forecast to move northeastward through the period, as a
trailing cold front advances southward across the Plains.

Low-level moisture return is expected to commence across south TX
into the ArkLaTex, though this early-stage moisture appears
insufficient to support deep convection across the region through
the end of the period. Farther west, buoyancy may become sufficient
to support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes near the
OR/northern CA coast, as multiple waves of precipitation move
onshore in association with the offshore mid/upper-level low/trough.
Weak convection could also accompany the midlevel shortwave trough
moving from the northern Rockies into the north-central Plains, but
instability currently appears too weak to support lightning
potential with this activity.

..Dean.. 11/23/2024

$$