225
ACUS02 KWNS 081725
SWODY2
SPC AC 081723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
WI/IA/IL AND CO...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple damaging wind swaths are possible from Saturday into
Saturday night, centered on central/southern Wisconsin,
central/eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Multiple rounds of
large hail are possible across eastern Colorado starting in the late
afternoon.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley...
A broken linear MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, centered from
western Upper MI to northern IA. Some CAMs suggest this should decay
into multiple separate clusters during the late morning, while most
maintain at least one coherent linear band eastward. Diurnal
destabilization ahead of the large-scale outflow may support
intensification by midday into the afternoon, mainly in WI. The bulk
of strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced to the rear of
the composite outflow/cold front as the amplified shortwave trough
over the northern Great Plains drifts east. This will yield a
pronounced gradient from northwest to southeast across the
outflow/front, and support decreasing organization as clusters reach
the Lake MI vicinity. Scattered damaging winds should be the
predominant hazard.

A broad low-level jet will nocturnally strengthen from the southern
High Plains to the Lower MO Valley. Regenerative storm development
is expected in the IA vicinity along the trailing front as it
becomes quasi-stationary and orients west/east. With ample buoyancy
lingering, modest organization into small-scale bows is possible on
Saturday night, yielding another round of damaging wind potential.

...Central/southern High Plains...
A cold front pushing south on D1 should become quasi-stationary over
the southern High Plains in the TX Panhandle tomorrow. Isolated
storms are possible near the boundary with a threat for sporadic
microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. Farther north
along the Front Range, a post-frontal upslope flow regime will favor
regenerative supercell development commencing by late afternoon.
With modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies atop the weak low-level
easterlies, strong deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy will favor
a risk of large to significant severe hail centered on
east-central/southeast CO. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse
ejecting towards the southern Rockies should foster thunderstorms
persisting well into Saturday night. While buoyancy will nocturnally
weaken, isolated severe hail/wind may occur from eastern CO into
western KS.

..Grams.. 08/08/2025

$$