201
ACUS02 KWNS 030702
SWODY2
SPC AC 030700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern
Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward
across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the
surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across
north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface
temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support
convective initiation along the front during the mid to late
afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the
front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early
evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
organize along and ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith,
Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear
up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8
C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail,
especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be
discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should
organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage
potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should
persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a
low-level jet strengthens.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday
across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and
instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of
instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will
create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and
near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be
around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present.
In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep,
generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an
isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal
wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi
Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

$$