073
ACUS02 KWNS 241739
SWODY2
SPC AC 241738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening across parts
of the southern and central Plains. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary threats. Areas of wind damage and hail are also expected
from parts of the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper ridge over the southern Plains will shift east through
the period, into the TN Valley by Monday morning, as a modest
shortwave trough moves into CO and NM late. At the surface, high
pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes, with an
elongated boundary roughly along I-40 from TX to TN. This front will
be stationary during the day but will move south as a cold front
late in the period.

South of the front, a very moist and unstable air mass will exist,
with the axis of strongest CAPE from OK into AR and northern
MS/southwest TN. The general west/northwest flow regime along atop
this unstable corridor will favor bouts of severe storms throughout
the period.

...Eastern OK to the TN Valley...
Storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern KS/OK
into northern MS, related to a broad zone of low-level theta-e
advection with southwest flow at 850 mb. This activity, or new
activity developing on associated outflows, may produce locally
damaging gusts or hail as it moves across AR and into TN/MS. Weak
shear will generally favor southeastward-moving storms/outflow, but
areas of strong instability would certainly support a few cells
capable of hail.

...Northwest TX into OK...
Very strong instability will develop south of the boundary, and east
the dryline over the South Plains. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg is likely,
complete with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.5 C/km. Initial
storms development near the southern Panhandle portion of the
boundary is likely to be supercellular producing very large hail.
Activity should quickly grow upscale into an MCS, proceeding to
produce damaging wind over much of northwest TX and southern to
central Oklahoma. Significant severe gusts over 65 kt will be
possible.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$