075
ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF  THE
SOUTHERN AND  CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi
Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the
southern and central High Plains on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the
D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for
afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across
the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization
for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains.

..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity...
Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday,
with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm
development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around
30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of
large hail and damaging wind.

Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough
from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across
central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and
modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to
severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into
southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook.

...Midwest...
An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions
of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind
through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating,
additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of
this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across
the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable
of strong to severe wind.

...Northeast...
Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a
jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across
portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and
marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two
capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was
extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk.

..Thornton.. 07/29/2025

$$