986
ACUS02 KWNS 260541
SWODY2
SPC AC 260540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are
possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...

Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the
southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and
associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is
forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front
advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of
that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into
central High Plains.


...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians...


Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters
to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within
a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered
around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will
have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later
in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating
can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to
low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield
MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.

As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location
of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into
night. That being said, storm development appears most probable
along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening
within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear
magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any
tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being
maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast
WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps
western OH Monday afternoon and evening.

Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into
night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs.
The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from
lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a
level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm
clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east
as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains
Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering
winds.


...Mid-Atlantic...

A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is
forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with
effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along
a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is
possible.


...Central High Plains...

Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper
high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist
and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer
with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential
for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.


...Southeast Arizona...

Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow
across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the
higher terrain closer to the international border within a
relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool
organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with
an associated risk of severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

$$