913
ACUS02 KWNS 241714
SWODY2
SPC AC 241712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from
Louisiana into parts of the Mid-South, and also near the Oregon and
northern California coasts.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to take on a
negative tilt on Monday, as it moves quickly eastward across parts
of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An associated surface low is
forecast to move from IL toward lower MI through the day and
evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Great
Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the mid/lower Mississippi Valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop later Monday near the front from
parts of LA into the Mid-South.

Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel low are
forecast are forecast to move eastward across parts of the Pacific
Northwest, northern CA, and the Great Basin. Weak convection with
isolated lightning flashes will be possible near the OR and northern
CA coasts, in association with this trough.

...Parts of LA into the TN/OH Valleys...
Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the cold front will result
in 60s F dewpoints reaching as far north as the Mid-South by Monday
afternoon, with 50s F dewpoints extending into parts of the Ohio
Valley. Stronger large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave
trough will be displaced to the north of the richer low-level
moisture, and buoyancy is expected to generally remain weak. As a
result, organized deep convection is currently not anticipated,
despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear.

Generally weak convection with isolated thunderstorm potential will
be possible (primarily later in the forecast period) in the vicinity
of the front from parts of LA into the Mid-South. Weak low-topped
convection (with localized gusty winds) will be possible into the
Ohio Valley, but increasingly negligible buoyancy is expected to
limit thunderstorm potential with northward extent.

..Dean.. 11/24/2024

$$