939
ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas
across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States.

...Synopsis...
An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift
eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support
some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad
region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and  the
southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively
tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level
ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts
of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is
possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk
corridors become more evident.

...Mid-South...
A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during
the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level
ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft
and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be
sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as
some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from
convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These
uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities.

...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley...
A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward
into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to
initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low
60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer
moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves
along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early
Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary
layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in
forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few
organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated
marginally severe hail may occur.

...Southern Atlantic Coast...
Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of
mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a
few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures
should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat.
Damaging winds are also possible.

..Wendt.. 05/07/2025

$$