048
FNUS22 KWNS 291956
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...Northwest...
Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed
owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning
production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise,
forecast (see below) remains on track.

...Great Basin...
Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant
increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later
will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of
central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around
15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent
along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential.

...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin...
Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain
Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four
Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across
southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains
of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a
Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude
and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with
improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions.

..Williams.. 06/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/

...Synopsis...
As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical
low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA
Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper
trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward
across portions of the West.

...Northwest...
Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the
approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon
and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb
will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the
potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area
has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are
possible.

...Great Basin...
Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface
temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While
surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH
values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a
local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of
locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$