029
FNUS22 KWNS 131936
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

Minor adjustments were made to bring the Elevated area further north
into northwestern New Mexico and far eastern Arizona to account for
latest trends in ensemble guidance. Otherwise, the outlook remains
on track. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 05/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/

...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as
it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong
mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold
front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is
likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are
expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated
fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of
the cold front.

...Southwest...
As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains,
the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest.
Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support
westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and
eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry
surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm
temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels
in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread
critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday.

...Central plains and upper Midwest...
As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will
gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry
downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting
to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across
parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest
meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of
supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing
surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing
cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will
favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated
fire-weather conditions expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$