Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
640 FNUS22 KWNS 221955 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... Slight enhancement of southwest mid-level flow will overspread much of the Southwest Friday. Efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support single digit relative humidity and breezy southwest winds across much of Arizona and New Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Mogollon Rim area and west-central New Mexico. Dry fuels developing across the Upper Colorado Basin will overlap with southwest winds of 10-20 mph and single digit relative humidity to promote an elevated fire weather threat in eastern Utah/western Colorado on Friday. ..Williams.. 05/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a midlevel trough moving eastward across central/southern CA, midlevel southwesterly flow will increase across the Southwest. This will promote gradual deepening of a broad surface low over the southern Great Basin. ...East-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico... Diurnal heating of a dry antecedent air mass across the Southwest will favor a deep/dry boundary layer -- characterized by single-digit afternoon RH. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the increasing southwesterly flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient south of the developing surface low, will yield 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds along the Mogollon Rim into west-central NM. The combination of breezy/gusty surface winds atop increasingly dry fuels will support critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$