Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
943 FNUS22 KWNS 221926 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Overall, the forecast remains on track, and only minor modifications were made to the outlook based on the latest forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 07/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue across the eastern U.S. on Day 2/Thursday as surface high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley behind a southward progressing cold front. A long-lived upper ridge across the Pacific Northwest will finally begin to flatten and break down owing to an approaching eastern Pacific upper trough. ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies... As upper-level flow transitions from broadly southerly to southwesterly, monsoonal moisture will be shunted northeastward as a dry airmass returns to the Inland Northwest. Daytime destabilization, ample mid-level moisture, and fast storm motions over the Columbia Basin into the Northern Rockies will promote isolated wet/dry thunderstorms. In addition, preceding days of hot and dry conditions have further exacerbated the fuelscape, leading to widespread 90-95th percentile ERCs. As upper level flow strengthens and impinges upon the Northwest, tightening pressure gradients along the Cascades will promote very gusty winds amid a very dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced where RH values should decline to less than 20% as winds increase to 15-20 mph (localized gusts up to 35 mph in terrain-favored areas). Greater concern for new ignitions and impacts to ongoing fires exist where the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights overlap. ...Carolinas... Residual dry and breezy conditions will continue across the Carolinas ahead of a slow approaching cold front. At peak heating, RH values will decline to 30-40 percent as southwesterly winds increase to 15 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected across the region as the front pushes through, bringing relief to the fuelscape and alleviating broader fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$