722
FNUS22 KWNS 170606
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WESTERN TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is
forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the
southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening
dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread
Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far
West Texas.

...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas...
As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the
dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10%
relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid
wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding
the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the
00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though
there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any
Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas,
meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold --
however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below
average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this
time.

..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$