283
FNUS22 KWNS 161957
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Northern Great Basin, Southern Idaho and southwestern Montana...
No significant changes were needed for isolated dry thunderstorm
threat area across the northern Great Basin into far southwestern
MT. Pacific moisture plume with PWATs reaching up to 1.00 inch along
a cold front combined with higher terrain convection in the
afternoon will still support areas a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms
Sunday. With elevated mid-level flow remaining in place from
southeastern OR into southwestern MT, faster northeast storm motions
will limit overall rainfall where fuels remain drier, increasing
lightning ignition potential.

...Southern Nevada into western Utah...
Amplifying mid-level trough over the Northwest along with the
arrival a subtle mid-level wave should enhance south-southwesterly
surface flow across southern NV into western UT. Fuels remain very
dry and receptive to spread, with some record to near record high
ERC values remaining across portions of the Great Basin along with
minimal rainfall over the past several days. Southwest winds of up
to 15 mph with relative humidity falling to as low as 10 percent
will bring elevated fire weather conditions to southern NV and
western UT Sunday where Elevated highlights have been introduced.

..Williams.. 08/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
Across the US, broad ridging is forecast to expand while troughing
consolidates over the West. As height aloft build, very warm surface
temperatures are expected over parts of the southern and
Southwestern CONUS. A belt of stronger flow aloft will impinge on
the northern Rockies as the trough and a weak surface cold front
approach. Monsoon moisture should support dry thunderstorms, while
light winds and dry conditions will persist elsewhere Sunday.

...Northern Rockies Dry Thunder...
Troughing should continue to intensify as it moves into the Great
Basin and Rockies Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the west.
This will allow for additional monsoon moisture to filter northward,
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Despite PWATs climbing to near 0.8 to 1 inches, a mix of
wet and dry thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front from
northern CA into the Northern Rockies. While not as dry as previous
days, stronger flow aloft is expected ahead of the deepening trough.
This should allow for a favorable alignment of drier/more receptive
fuels and faster northeast thunderstorm motions to limit rainfall
across northern NV into central ID and western MT. Thus, isolated
dry lightning and ignitions are likely to remain a concern across
the receptive fuels beds of the northern Great Basin and Rockies
Sunday.

...Southern NV into southwest UT
South of the western US troughing and stronger flow aloft, another
day of dry and locally breezy conditions is expected over parts of
the southern Great Basin. While displaced from the stronger flow,
localized 15 mph surface winds and low RH below 15% are likely
across southern NV and southwest UT. With area fuels very dry and
receptive, some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible, though widespread occurrence is unlikely owing to the
modest winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$