174
FNUS22 KWNS 221823
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...Update...
A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early
Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward
over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast
has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm
probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive
fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can`t be completely
ruled out within the previously forecast region over
southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage
will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional,
small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the
southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the
97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Barnes.. 08/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/

...Synopsis...
An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS
on Day 2/Saturday.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will
continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest.
Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms
during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive
fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible.

Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts
of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal
moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless,
lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier
rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$