499
FNUS22 KWNS 200657
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
The strong ridge over the western US is expected to continue to
break down under the shortwave trough passing through the northern
Rockies. This will support continued advection of monsoon moisture
northward into the Great Basin and parts of southern California. By
Thursday afternoon, PWAT values are likely to be between 0.5-0.8"
with a dry sub-cloud layer and steep low-level lapse rates. Despite
slower storm motions and isolated coverage over Utah and parts of
Nevada, little wetting rainfall is expected. This should support
isolated dry thunderstorm potential the under the upper high and
into portions of eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. With dry fuels
in place, some lightning ignitions are possible.

In addition to the potential for thunderstorms, very warm and
unstable conditions are expected on the periphery of the deeper
monsoon moisture surge over parts of the southern Great Basin and
southern California. Steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal
buoyancy will support unstable conditions over much of the
Southwest. This could support plume dominated fire growth and
pyroconvection near large active fires, with localized extreme fire
behavior possible.

..Lyons.. 08/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$