438
FNUS22 KWNS 120633
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...Synopsis...
An upper level low will move onshore the Pacific Northwest and
transform into an open trough as it moves farther inland. Wedged
between western U.S. troughing and an amplifying longwave trough
over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will slide over the Rocky
Mountain region. Associated with the substantial mid-upper level
pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low in the southern Canadian
Prairies and deepening lee surface troughing over the Great Basin
and High Plains will present a multifaceted fire weather setup
across portions of the Intermountain West.

...Northern Montana...
In the southern Canadian Prairies, a rapidly evolving lee low will
promote a dry return flow pattern across the northern High Plains. A
Critical fire weather risk was introduced for northeastern MT and
far northwestern ND where sustained southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph
and 15-20 percent RH will overlap an exceptionally dry fuelscape.
Widespread south-southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph amid 20-25 percent
RH will promote elevated fire weather concerns across much of
central-eastern MT. Fast moving, high based showers and
thunderstorms with limited precipitation are expected across central
and northern MT as broader ascent materializes ahead of an incoming
trough. Resultant instability and a dry boundary layer could
encourage a few lightning ignitions where receptive fuels exist. An
IsoDryT area was introduced to account for this threat.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Snake River Plain and Colorado
River Basin...
As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
bring fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain West.
Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH and drying fuels under
successive days of abnormally high temperatures will support an
Elevated fire weather threat across the region. Daytime instability
and increasing mid-level moisture will promote high based convection
along the higher terrain of the Four Corners through central WY into
the Wyoming Basin. Sporadic lightning ignitions are possible where
drier fuels exist, promoting an IsoDryT area.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$