061
FNUS22 KWNS 031851
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA......

Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the
Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of
northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming
based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours
of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained
surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the
Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening.
Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread
owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing
moderate/severe drought conditions.

Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the
interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California
and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at
this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an
Elevated fire weather area.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments
made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information
on tomorrow`s fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 08/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/

...Synopsis...
A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward
across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday.
Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the
Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will
overspread the Great Basin.

...Great Basin...
Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a
deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized
by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing
into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead
to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West...
Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in
high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West
and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW
(inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry
thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given
limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced
ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds).

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$