219
FNUS22 KWNS 042001
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...
Broad south to southwest flow ahead of Northern Plains cold front
and mid-level trough is still expected across much of the Midwest
and Great Lakes Region Sunday. Drier air aloft at the 800-700 mb
level will be ushered into the Ohio River Valley and southern Great
Lakes region. Limited high cloud cover should still support a
favorable boundary layer mixing environment resulting in RH falling
to as low as 20% across portions of far eastern IA, northern IL and
northwestern IN. South to southwest winds of 10-20 mph will combine
with the drier conditions and drought stressed fuels to promote an
elevated fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 10/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the central Plains is forecast to lift
northward into the Great Lakes as the surface low continues to
intensify near the Canadian border. A trailing cold front will sweep
eastward over the Northern Plains with wetting rainfall likely along
and behind it. Ahead of the front, continued warm/dry conditions are
likely over parts of the Midwest where elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible.

...Midwest...
Ongoing flash drought across much of the Midwest will continue to
support drying fine fuels this weekend. Unseasonably warm
temperatures and increasing southerly winds gusting 15-25 mph during
the afternoon will support a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions on Sunday. The highest confidence in sustained elevated
conditions will be across portions of eastern IA into northwestern
IL. Here, deep mixing should limit returning surface moisture while
winds are expected to remain strong ahead of the cold front trailing
the surface low farther north.

...Southern High Plains...
Along a trailing lee trough, breezy southwesterly winds are likely
over portions of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. While
not widespread, warm temperatures and downsloping should support RH
values below 30% on an isolated basis. The favorable RH and increase
in winds could allow for some locally elevated fire-weather
conditions given increasingly dry fine fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$