930
FNUS22 KWNS 111942
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

A dry, post-frontal northwest flow regime is still expected to bring
a broad fire weather threat to portions of the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 2/Tuesday. A swath of stronger
sustained northwest winds between 15 and 25 mph will impact the
eastern Dakotas into southwestern MN. However, this corridor of
stronger winds will be displaced to the east of a warmer, drier
boundary layer across the northern and central High Plains where
afternoon RH reductions below 20% will be more common. Nonetheless,
the breezy northwest winds and very dry fuels (ERC values in the
95-99th percentile) should support an elevated fire weather concern
for much of the Dakotas, southwest MN into northeastern NE and
northwestern IA. Additionally, some green up of fuels could mitigate
the otherwise Critical fire weather threat across eastern
NE/northwestern IA.

..Williams.. 05/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface
low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest
and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow
will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the
upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be
modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will
compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any
lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually
be warranted.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$