506
FNUS22 KWNS 191812
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

The Elevated area was expanded across portions of the Great Basin
and into the northern Rockies as dry/breezy conditions are becoming
more likely with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. Latest
high-resolution guidance has higher probabilities of elevated to
locally critical winds/RH along/ahead of a cold front with above
normal temperatures across this area.

The IsoDryT area was modified, but uncertainty regarding coverage of
thunderstorms has increased. Moisture and instability will be
limited, but enough instability and forcing for ascent may be
sufficient to produce isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms.
Chances of convection begin early in the morning and do persist
overnight. If thunderstorms fail to develop, high-based showers
mixed with building cumulus are likely. Additionally, any active
large wildfires in/near the IsoDryT area have increased chances of
deep pyroconvection given the favorable sounding profiles.

..Nauslar.. 08/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest as weak
troughing continues over parts of the Northwest. A shortwave trough,
embedded within the broader northern trough, will move eastward into
the northern Rockies Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft
will help monsoon moisture (PWATs 0.6-0.8 inches) advect northward
over NV and western UT. A surface cold front associated with the
upper trough will stall over the western Great Basin serving as a
focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
and likely dry storms are expected over parts of NV and UT. A few
storms may possibly continue overnight in eastern Idaho and
northwest Wyoming.

...ID...
In addition to the isolated risk for thunderstorms, the strong flow
aloft and cold front will promote gusty west/southwest winds through
portions of the Snake River Plane and northern Great Basin
Wednesday. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the
cold front. Very warm temperatures are expected under the ridge with
afternoon humidity also expected to be low. With winds and low
humidity overlapping with dry fuels, elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible.

Some dry and breezy conditions may also develop farther south over
the Great Basin. However, increasing monsoon moisture along the
front and more sporadic surface winds suggest lower confidence for
sustained elevated fire-weather conditions. Localized dry and breezy
could still occur, especially around any active fires given the very
warm and dry conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$