565
ACUS01 KWNS 111609
SWODY1
SPC AC 111607

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California
and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the
southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over
the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of
the central and eastern CONUS between these two features.

The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes
increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is
expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with
enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the
northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX.
Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves
eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest
buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with
this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across
southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout
the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over
west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep
the severe thunderstorm potential very low.

..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025

$$