922
ACUS01 KWNS 311947
SWODY1
SPC AC 311945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain
possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western
and central Missouri.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major
changes or additions made to the outlook.

..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/

...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley.  The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail.  Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition.  Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening.  If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two.  Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.

...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening.  Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range.  Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.

...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s.  Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.

$$