Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
450 ACUS01 KWNS 241957 SWODY1 SPC AC 241956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/ ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. $$