216
ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest.  Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard.  Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends
northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable
disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this
morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening.  Lee
troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate
east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm
activity this afternoon into the evening.  Moist southerly low-level
flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the
central into the north-central U.S.  The latest model guidance shows
the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest
(2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear
(generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear).  Heating and appreciable
forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually
evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the
aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over
Dakotas/MN vicinity.  Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard,
but large hail may accompany the stronger storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV
into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low
situated over the Pacific Northwest.  IR satellite imagery this
morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV
anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and
eastern OR.  In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms,
additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this
afternoon.  A locally greater risk for severe may become focused
within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into
far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger
[reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus
Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)].  Isolated severe gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025

$$