508
ACUS01 KWNS 050032
SWODY1
SPC AC 050030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail remain possible across the central
and northern Plains tonight.

...01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across the High
Plains from western SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. In response, a
broken band of convection has matured along this corridor. Over the
next several hours, 500mb speed max should intensify and translate
across the central High Plains into the upper Red River region by
the end of the period. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a
marked increase in LLJ as this speed max/midlevel height falls shift
downstream. VAD winds support this with 45kt 1km flow currently
noted across central NE into eastern SD. With time low-level warm
advection should encourage elevated convection along the cool side
of the boundary across the northern Plains. This activity could
produce hail as large as 1-1.5 inches in the strongest updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/05/2025

$$