464
ACUS01 KWNS 291603
SWODY1
SPC AC 291601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida,
as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

...GA/FL...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward
across GA.  A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and
south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating
expected.  This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg
and scattered thunderstorm development.  Sufficient northwesterly
mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north
FL by early evening.  Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum
transfer.  If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind
risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before
weakening after dark.

...MT/ND...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border.  These storms will be
in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg.  As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the
combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/29/2026

$$