


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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611 ACUS01 KWNS 070536 SWODY1 SPC AC 070535 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western and central New Mexico. ...Western and Central New Mexico... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. Heights will gradually rise over the southern Rockies today, as a shortwave ridge moves across the region. At the surface, upslope easterly winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, with surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F over much of southern and central New Mexico. In west-central New Mexico, along the western edge of this low-level moisture, a north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form within this corridor of instability, with a relatively small cluster moving eastern into central New Mexico during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings in the late afternoon to the west of Albuquerque have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast between 7 and 7.5 C/km with 500 mb temperatures of -10 to -11C. This should be favorable for hail with the stronger rotating cells that develop near the instability axis. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer may also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. However, the rising mid-level heights will be a limiting factor, and for that reason any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/07/2025 $$