014
ACUS01 KWNS 230059
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur this
evening and into tonight from parts of the northern and central High
Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and separately across parts
of Arizona. Damaging winds and occasional hail should be the main
threats.

...Upper Midwest...
A cluster of storms across northern Wisconsin and the UP has now
moved into Canada and is weakening on the eastern periphery of the
better instability. In the wake of this activity, a few storms have
developed along a cold front moving through northern Minnesota with
a few isolated showers/storms developing ahead of it. Have adjusted
the thunder line west to account for these storms and will keep the
marginal across southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where
instability remains. This threat will likely only continue for a few
more hours before a cooling boundary layer stabilizes the area.

...Central Plains into the central High Plains...
The earlier cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska moved south
and weakened as it moved into a more stable airmass across southern
Nebraska. However, an additional storm developed across east-central
Nebraska where 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is present. This threat may remain
for a few more hours before eventual nocturnal stabilization ends
the threat.

Storms across Wyoming and northeast Colorado have been relatively
weak thus far. However, as heights continue to fall across the
region, expect these storms to maintain with additional storm
development also possible. Weak to moderate instability with 30 to
35 knots of shear will support the potential for isolated strong
storms capable of large hail or severe wind gusts this evening and
into the early overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2025

$$