925
ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado threat is anticipated.  Scattered severe thunderstorms
and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of
the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys.

...20z Update...
Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on
track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward
risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected
storm development across this corridor into this evening.

..Guyer.. 06/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/

...Mid MS and TN Valleys...
Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and
AR.  An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal
destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River
confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by
early to mid afternoon.  Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell
tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this
afternoon and early evening.  Farther south, widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes
by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front.
Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA.  The southern fringe of
stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the
stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms
through the early evening.

...High Plains...
Little change was made to the prior forecast.  Two primary corridors
for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25
corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK
Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the
vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of
northwest/west TX and eastern NM.  In eastern CO, moist upslope flow
will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the
foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow.
Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells
with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind
threat late.

Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity
of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of
very large hail and a few tornadoes.  Some signal in model guidance
shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms
move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually
diminishing late.

..Southern New England...
Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the
Hudson Valley eastward to the coast.  Scattered storms are forecast
to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible.
A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger
storms.  For short-term details, reference MCD #1145.

$$