228
ACUS01 KWNS 091957
SWODY1
SPC AC 091955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Modest changes were made to the general thunder area based on
current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning
remains valid.

..Wendt.. 11/09/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/

...Discussion...
An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning
will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the
northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z.  As it does, an
occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory.

As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a
moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region.  Farther
north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger
shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability.  As
such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead
of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is
not anticipated.

$$