620
ACUS01 KWNS 240109
SWODY1
SPC AC 240107

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of
Nebraska into the upper Midwest and northern Lower Michigan, and
also across the northern High Plains.

...NE into the Upper Midwest and northern Lower MI...
Strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central NE
into southern MN/northern IA. Very rich low-level moisture and
strong buoyancy remain in place along/south of a composite
front/outflow, though deep-layer flow/shear is relatively modest
along/south of the boundary. Considering the favorable buoyancy,
some threat for damaging gusts will persist through the evening,
especially if any stronger clusters or bowing segments (like the one
currently in central NE) become established within the larger region
of ongoing convection. Isolated hail will also be possible with the
strongest updrafts.

Farther east, a well-defined bowing storm cluster is moving across
Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan. Decreasing buoyancy
and increasing CINH with eastward extent should eventually result in
a weakening trend with this system, but some threat for at least
localized wind damage may continue into parts of northwest and
possibly north-central lower MI this evening.

...Northern High Plains...
Ongoing storms approaching the NE Panhandle should generally weaken
with time as they encounter decreasing instability, though localized
hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening. Farther
west, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across
northeast WY and vicinity this evening, within a modestly unstable
but favorably sheared environment.

..Dean.. 07/24/2025

$$